Ukraine’s Six-Part Strategy to Survive the Global Run on Patriot Missiles
Kyiv is trying to mitigate the shortage of missile interceptors that has left its cities exposed to Russia’s ballistic missiles [.]
By
Alistair MacDonald,
Anastasiia Malenko and Marcus Walker
July 8, 2026 10:00 pm ET
[Original article contains links]
KYIV,
Ukraine—Ukraine is running out of U.S.-made Patriot interceptor missiles,
leaving its cities nearly defenseless against Russia’s escalating barrages of
ballistic missiles.
What can Ukraine do about it?
It is pressing Western
nations to donate more Patriot missiles faster from their stockpiles, but
everyone is running low. The U.S.-Iran war has worsened the global shortage of
interceptors. Production of new ones is painfully slow.
Moscow is exploiting
the weakness in Kyiv’s air defenses as the Russian army struggles on the front
lines. This week, Ukraine wasn’t able to shoot down any of the 28 ballistic
missiles that Russia fired at the Kyiv area. The attacks are killing dozens of
civilians.
“This is Russia’s last major advantage,” Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky told allies at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit
in Ankara on Tuesday. “We are capable of doing everything else ourselves. But
when it comes to air defense, we need our partners’ determination.”
President
Trump said Wednesday said he would support giving Ukraine licenses to build
Patriot interceptors on its own territory, something Kyiv has been asking for.
However, turning U.S. political approval into the production of actual missiles
could take years, leaving Ukrainian cities dangerously exposed.
Ukraine,
painfully aware that Western help will take time to materialize, isn’t only
waiting for its allies to act.
Here are six things Kyiv is trying to do to
mitigate the Russian ballistic threat and limit the damage. [JB -- My mistake? I counted/numbered EIGHT "things" mentioned.]
1) Be efficient with
Patriots
Ukraine is working to use its scarce Patriots as efficiently as
possible. It has built a multilayered air defense, in which different systems
tackle different threats. The military saves its Patriot interceptors for
ballistic missiles to avoid wasting them on long-range drones and cruise
missiles, said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow at Royal United Services
Institute, a defense and security think tank in London.
In contrast, the U.S.
and its Gulf allies expended valuable Patriot interceptors on drones and cruise
missiles, which can be shot down by other means, Bronk said.
In just 39 days of
war against Iran, the U.S. fired up to 1,430 Patriot interceptors, according to
an estimate by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Gulf allies
used up even more, analysts said.
The Patriot system typically uses up to three
interceptors to destroy one ballistic missile, but Ukraine has been using just
one, according to Valery Romanenko, a former Ukrainian air-defense officer and a
researcher at Kyiv’s National Aviation University. That of course decreases the
chances of an interception, he said.
“It is often necessary to rely on human
operators, because automated systems can fire more missiles to destroy a single
target—significantly more than just one or two,” said Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for
the Ukrainian Air Force.
2) Shoot the arrow-maker, not the arrow.
Ukraine’s own
long-range air campaign, which has been pummeling Russian oil refineries, is
also targeting Russian military industries that make key components for
missiles.
Zelensky said on July 1 that Ukrainian forces had struck a
missile-component plant in Russia’s Penza region, and in late June he reported a
strike on a similar industrial plant in the Volgograd region, both deep inside
Russia.
Ukraine is believed to be using its domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo
cruise missiles for such strikes against well-protected targets such as military
production sites. But it doesn’t yet have many of the Flamingos, said Fabian
Hoffmann, a missile expert at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies in
Oslo.
The long-range drones that Ukraine has been using successfully against
Russian refineries carry a smaller payload, and lack the power to punch through
the hardened shelters where missile production takes place, said Romanenko.
Destroying enemy missile production, or missile launchers, is difficult, as the
U.S. and Israel discovered in their war against Iran—and as Russia is finding in
its attempts to destroy Ukraine’s growing military industries.
3) Hide defense industries
Ukraine is
believed to be using its domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles for
such strikes against well-protected targets such as military production sites.
But it doesn’t yet have many of the Flamingos, said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile
expert at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies in Oslo.
The long-range
drones that Ukraine has been using successfully against Russian refineries carry
a smaller payload, and lack the power to punch through the hardened shelters
where missile production takes place, said Romanenko.
Destroying enemy missile
production, or missile launchers, is difficult, as the U.S. and Israel
discovered in their war against Iran—and as Russia is finding in its attempts to
destroy Ukraine’s growing military industries.
4) Find alternatives to the Patriot
Ukraine is believed to be using
its domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles for such strikes against
well-protected targets such as military production sites. But it doesn’t yet
have many of the Flamingos, said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert at the
Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies in Oslo.
The long-range drones that
Ukraine has been using successfully against Russian refineries carry a smaller
payload, and lack the power to punch through the hardened shelters where missile
production takes place, said Romanenko.
Destroying enemy missile production, or
missile launchers, is difficult, as the U.S. and Israel discovered in their war
against Iran—and as Russia is finding in its attempts to destroy Ukraine’s
growing military industries.
5) Hide defense industries
Since the start of the
war, Ukraine has spread its defense production around the country and even
abroad. One company, Swarmer, hid its main facility in a suburban house.
Ukrainian drone makers now produce in the U.K. and Germany.
Sometimes
production is hidden underground—a lesson that the U.K. and Nazi Germany learned
during their mutual bombing campaigns in World War II, when both sides produced
war materiel in mines, tunnels and even a London subway station.
Sometimes, the
solution is simple. “The best protection against ballistic missiles is
concrete,” said Ihnat, the airforce spokesman.
6) Find alternatives to the
Patriot
Zelensky is urging the U.S. to grant licenses so Ukraine can produce
Patriots itself. But the U.S. has been reluctant to share the know-how with
foreign countries. At the end of this year, European missile maker MBDA is set
to start production of Patriot interceptors in Germany—but not the newest
model.
A few other systems can intercept ballistic missiles, including the
U.S.-made Thaad, British and French ship-based systems and various Israeli
alternatives. But Ukraine either hasn’t been given access to them or they aren’t
suited to its needs.
Ukraine has two versions of the Samp/T system, a
French-Italian rival to the Patriot. But the system has performed poorly against
Russian ballistic missiles. Ukraine could get a new, improved version of the
Samp/T, but deliveries could take time.
Ukrainian defense company Fire Point is
working on a domestically produced anti-ballistic missile system. Called the
FP-7, it will undergo flight tests this summer, according to company founder
Denys Shtilerman. But it isn’t clear when it will enter service.
***
JB: Please refer to entries 7&8
(if they exist)
for authoritative information.
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