Even as It Bombards Kyiv, Russia’s Wider Military Campaign Has Largely Stalled
Moscow can still inflict serious damage, but its forces are suffering higher casualties than their Ukrainian counterparts, analysts say.
July 2, 2026 Updated 10:49 a.m. ET
The Russian strikes on Ukraine are a reminder of its ability to launch major attacks and cause severe damage, but Moscow’s wider military campaign has largely stalled in recent months, analysts say.
Russia took control of roughly 32 square miles of territory in June, DeepState, a Ukrainian organization with ties to the country’s military that uses open-source intelligence to track battlefield movements, said in a statement.
Where Russia has made gains in the eastern region of Donetsk, it is doing so at one of the slowest rates in any war over the last century, according to a report published on Wednesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based research group. Russian forces are advancing at an average of 164 feet per day around the city of Kostiantynivka, 230 feet per day near Pokrovsk and 295 feet per day around Sloviansk, the report found.
The Russian military is also suffering far higher casualties than the Ukrainian forces, rising to a rate of nearly eight to one in the first six months of 2026, compared with between two to one and three to one for much of the war, C.S.I.S. said.
Still, even small advances allow Russian forces to extend the reach of their drones, artillery and glide bombs, and they are steadily laying waste to the cities that remain under Ukrainian control in the Donbas. Some of the most brutal fighting is taking place in Kostiantynivka, where Russian forces are steadily pushing deeper into the city.
Strikes deep in Russian territory and a systemic campaign of targeting a garrison supporting Russian forces in the Crimean peninsula is causing fuel shortages, complicating troop rotations and reducing Russian military activity there.
***
Marc Santora has been reporting from Ukraine since the beginning of the war with Russia. He was previously based in London as an international news editor focused on breaking news events and earlier the bureau chief for East and Central Europe, based in Warsaw. He has also reported extensively from Iraq and Africa.
***
Our Coverage of the War in Ukraine
--Putin Faces Pressure: Ukraine is taking the war to Russia, but so far President Vladimir Putin’s response has been to keep attacking, including with deadly ballistic missile and drone strikes in Kyiv.
--Ukrainian Charged With Sabotaging Pipelines: A man identified only as Serhii K. is accused of overseeing an undersea bombing in 2022 in pipelines between Russia and Germany that cut off a key source of Russian gas revenues.
--Childbearing in Ukraine: Bombings, blackouts and displacement compound maternal anxiety. Still, many women persevere. “We must bring new life,” one said.
--A Prom in Kyiv: Masha Polska, 15, was an avid dancer who had been dreaming of a star turn in the group waltz. That was not to be.
--Don’t Talk About the War in Russia: As Ukraine brings the war home to Russia, officials hesitate to designate shelters and blast sirens, downplaying the conflict’s consequences with euphemisms.
Comments
Post a Comment