What will happen if Ukraine fails to seize the battlefield initiative before winter and the war against Russia continues?
From Quora
Ukraine doesn’t need to “seize the battlefield initiative before winter”—there is an opportunity for that, but Ukraine can comfortably stay in defence, while destroying Russian pre-frontal logistics, oil infrastructure, and military manufacturing facilities, and increasing the rate of “deleting” Russian manpower at the front.
The Ukrainian campaign of middle strikes on the Russian pre-frontal logistics is working. There are huge issues with fuel in Crimea, because the trucks bringing fuel are specifically targeted by drones—fuel burns well.
To counter that, Russia is painting trucks in weird patterns of black and white (to confuse the AI targeting systems) and began placing armed soldiers every 100 meters by the road.
I wouldn’t call it “desperation” like many commentators—that’s a valid attempt to counter an actual threat.
But it shows how hard the situation with bringing fuel, food, and munitions to the front is.
Russia counts on the Ukrainians getting exhausted by Moscow’s missile barrages against the cities.
These massive aerial attacks happen every 10–14 days. Some missiles and drones get shot down by the Ukrainian air defence. Some get through. The Russians hope their attacks against Ukrainian civilians would tip the scales in their favor. They hope for it for 4.5 years.
Meanwhile, the Russian troops are struggling at the front, military recruitment offices have no money to pay to potential conscripts: Putin now offers debt forgiveness to willing cannon fodder, putting further pressure on banks and private lenders’ portfolios, which are already full of bad debts, but this pushes the problems a few months into the future.
Ending Russia's war before winter is realistic, says Kyrylo Budanov, chief of the office of the president of Ukraine.
"The president has tasked us with trying to end this war as quickly as possible. I can confirm that this is indeed his goal — to bring hostilities to an end as soon as possible, preferably before winter," Budanov told to ‘Kyiv Independent’.
Earlier, Budanov warned that Ukrainians had a game changing weapon—and then we saw the new middle range drones obliterating Russian logistics in the land bridge to Crimea.
The Ukrainians have a plan.
They aren’t telling what their plan is to the Russians.
Let them guess.
They’ll find out in due time.
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