Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Kazakhstan this year in a photo released by Russian state media.Alexander Kazakov/SPUTNIK/EPA/Shutterstock
Quick Summary
--Russia is pressuring Belarus to strengthen the countries’ military union, potentially opening a new front in the Ukraine war.
--Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky threatened to strike drone ground stations in Belarus if Belarus doesn’t dismantle them.
--Russia and Belarus held joint nuclear exercises last month, transporting nuclear warheads to Belarusian ballistic-missile positions.
WARSAW—Russia’s closest ally, Belarus, has emerged as a potential new front in the Kremlin’s confrontation with the West, as Moscow seeks to strengthen its military union with the country and Ukraine threatens strikes on its territory.
Earlier this year, Moscow started a pressure campaign on Belarus in hopes of using it as a springboard to expand Russia’s war in Ukraine or to launch nonconventional operations against members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said former and current Russian and European officials.
The move signals that Moscow might be weighing a risky escalation in the war as its army struggles to advance in eastern Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin faces faltering domestic support more than four years into the conflict. Officials say Belarus, where Moscow bases tactical nuclear weapons, could be a crucial player in that plan.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said French President Emmanuel Macron, in a roughly 90-minute phone call last month, told him that Paris had information that Belarus was going to boost its engagement in the war. He said Macron warned him against it. An aide to Macron confirmed the call, saying that the French president “emphasized the risks Belarus faces if it allows itself to be drawn into Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.”
After Russia used Belarusian territory in 2022 during Moscow’s initial invasion of Ukraine, Belarus has largely stayed out of the conflict. U.S. officials have made repeated trips to Belarus over the past year in an attempt to draw the country away from Russia. Washington lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash and encouraged neighboring countries to do the same, allowing exports that would generate some revenue for the cash-strapped country.
Russian tanks took part in joint drills in Belarus last year.olesya kurpyayeva/AFP/Getty Images
Soldiers make their way across a field during the joint military exercises between Belarus and Russia.Shatokhina Natalia/Zuma Press
Lukashenko, in turn, has also released some 500 political prisoners after talks with U.S. officials.
“Entering the war would be against Lukashenko’s strategic aims, which appear to be tied to improving his relationship with the West,” said Alexander Piroznikow, founder of the East European Strategic Forum, a think tank and consulting firm that focuses on Russia and Belarus.
But recently, Belarus has sold gasoline and other refined oil products to Moscow as it faces a growing fuel shortage after Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil and refinery infrastructure. Moscow has also been increasingly using drone ground stations on Belarusian territory to direct drones launched from Russia deeper into Ukraine. About 2,000 Russian troops are currently stationed in Belarus.
Belarus’s support has caught Ukraine’s attention, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Kyiv will strike ground stations in Belarus if the country continues to allow Russia to use them. The stations were used in recent Russian strikes on Rivne, Zhytomyr and Volyn in Ukraine, Zelensky said.
In an interview on Ukrainian television, Zelensky warned that if Lukashenko didn’t take down the stations, then “We’ll take everything down.”
Belarus’s support for Russia could make the country a Ukrainian target, leaving it vulnerable to the kinds of attacks Kyiv is conducting deep inside Russia itself, cutting supply chains and damaging its industrial base.
Still, Russia is stepping up the pressure on Belarus, said former and current Russian and European officials. Moscow’s requests include using Belarusian territory to launch drone attacks on Ukraine, extending the front line westward and drawing Ukrainian troops away from higher-priority areas in the east. Alternatively, Belarus could be used for operations against its NATO neighbors.
Baltic Sea
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Baltic Sea
St. Petersburg
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Zelensky said last month that Kyiv has obtained details of communications between Russian and Belarusian officials indicating that Moscow is considering using Belarus for potential military operations either in Ukraine to the country’s south or in Baltic states north of the country.
A former Russian intelligence officer briefed on the discussions between Russia and Belarus confirmed that Moscow was pressuring Belarus, threatening to withhold the financial lifelines Minsk is dependent on. He said that most conversations have taken place between Lukashenko and Russia’s ambassador to the country, Boris Gryzlov.
Last month, Russia and Belarus held joint nuclear exercises, and Russian forces transported nuclear warheads to Belarusian ballistic-missile field positions. Both defense ministries published a video of what they said were trucks taking nuclear warheads out of storage and delivering them to Belarusian troops.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia’s armed forces were carrying out operations: “Belarus isn’t participating.”
The Belarusian Defense Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.
To be sure, there aren’t indications that Russia is imminently planning to use Belarus for a military operation, but the possibility is on the table, people familiar with the matter said. Such an operation wouldn’t necessarily be a conventional military attack, the people said. It could be an attack aimed at testing NATO defenses or undermining support for Ukraine, such as when 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace from Belarus last summer.
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