Is Ukraine able militarily to retake Crimea? (via quora)

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Former Technical Consultant and Strategic Planner at various US government departments and some global companies (1990–2015)11h
Is Ukraine able militarily to retake Crimea?

Is Ukraine able militarily to retake Crimea?

I recently saw an interesting analysis of this, and it mentioned a couple things that I was unaware of which make a military assault highly inadvisable.

For a start, get out your Google and look a the satellite view in maps. See that wide connection of Crimea to the mainland? It’s mostly swamp. The only reasonable path for an armed force is a narrow strip on the West side. ….DUH…. I think we all know what happens to a narrow column of soldiers heading into enemy territory. (Everyone except Putin in 2022.)

To the East, the whole coast is swamp, and the only dry route is over the Kerch bridge.

That means that any assault force would have to come by air and sea. That is NOT very practical for a country with very limited air and naval forces.

The other thing I didn’t know is that the population of Crimea is now 80% Russian. After annexing it in 2014, Russia encouraged Russians to move to Crimea with all sorts of incentives. Many did. Thus, a Ukrainian military force in Crimea would most likely be unwelcomed by most of the people living there. They would be occupiers surrounded by a hostile population - at least initially. Russian propaganda has cast Ukraine the evil enemy of the Russian people, and it will take a while to undo that perception.

Thus, an invading army would face many difficulties, even in this situation where the land had been stolen from them a decade before. Putin has made it more “Russian” than “Ukrainian” now.

If it were not such a desirable piece of land, Ukraine might be willing to give it up its moral and legal claim. But, the fact of the matter is that it is important for its warmer climate and access to the Black Sea.

My understanding is that Ukraine’s strategy is not to move their force in, but to convince the Russian forces to move out. If Ukraine retakes their territory North of Crimea, and leaves only the Kerch Bridge as Russia’s link to Crimea, the Russian military position becomes untenable. Russian citizens in Crimea then have a choice: Accept adoption by Ukraine or get out while they can. I *think* that after a while most of them will decide that life is better as a Ukrainian. In the last legitimate election, they already did.

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