Has the war in Ukraine inflicted significant damage on Russian energy infrastructure and military facilities?
From Quora May 26
Ukraine can now strike targets 1,700 km deep inside Russia (Perm, Yekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk); Ukrainian drones and cruise missiles can penetrate layered Moscow air defenses as well.
Military production and oil refining and storage facilities are the primary targets of the Ukrainian strikes in Russia.
Russia uses proceeds from oil exports to fund the war. Attacks on oil refineries and storage depots are aimed to stifle Russia’s ability to profit from high oil prices.
Currently, estimated 10–25% of Russia’s refining capacity is offline. The bottlenecks in refining capacity even caused the closure of 400 oil wells in just one oil mining company.
Map of main Russian refineries: Ukraine can strike Yekaterinburg, but hasn’t reached as far as Tyumen and Surgut (as yet). Hitting Surgut facilities could halt a large share of oil deliveries to the rest of Russia.
Ukraine is systematically destroying oil loading facilities in Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, as well as the Baltic port of Ust-Luga.
After the damage is repaired, another Ukrainian strike destroys the production once again—that’s the modus operandi employed by the Ukrainian military command.
The new generation of drone swarms appears to be powered by AI for precise targeting, which would mean it doesn’t require connection to the base for the final stage of the attack.
The fact that the Ukrainian drones can now successfully strike Moscow, which has the highest concentration of air defence systems, layered to prevent penetration by drones, must be a major worry for the Russian leadership.
Destruction of Russian oil infrastructure affects the Russian economy immediately. Putin still finds money for the war, but the rest of the economy is left without investment, leading to Russia falling behind technologically.
Russia’s bank system is propped up by continuous restructuring of bad debts to companies of the military-industrial complex. Putin had to sharply raise taxes on businesses, and it’s believed that 1/3 to 2/3 of all small businesses won’t be able to survive the tax hike—either closing or retreating into “the grey economy” based on cash payments.
Ukraine’s strikes on oil refineries and storage facilities are like “the death by 1,000 cuts” for Russia.
If Putin continues to target Ukrainian cities, Ukraine will continue striking Russia’s oil infrastructure and military facilities—until Putin has no other option but to agree to a ceasefire.
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