News Analysis [:] Russia’s Strategy Against the West: Escalate Slowly and See if It Responds

Inbox The Kyiv Independent Unsubscribe 5:50 PM (1 hour ago) to me Friday, May 8, 2026 war notes Asami Terajima War Notes by Asami Terajima Dear War Notes readers, This is Asami Terajima writing this week's War Notes from a sunny, warm Kyiv. It's strange how quickly it got warm in recent days. My skin is still not used to the amount of sunshine, after enduring a long and exceptionally cold winter. There is a lot to unpack this week, but before I get started, I just wanted to say that my colleagues have been working exceptionally hard to deliver the latest updates about both sides' demand for a temporary ceasefire ahead of Russia's May 9 celebrations. You can support us by becoming a member of the Kyiv Independent, for as little as $5 a month. Ukraine and Russia proposed separate short-term ceasefires this week, with both sides accusing each other of violating the truces. The week began with Russian President Vladimir Putin declaring a two-day "Victory Day ceasefire" through May 8-9. Upon announcement on May 4, the Russian Defense Ministry called on the Ukrainian side to reciprocate it. Tomorrow, May 9, is the 81st anniversary of the 1945 victory over Nazi Germany. The Victory Day parades have held immense significance for the Kremlin for decades. Ceasefires throughout the war, often proposed by Moscow during religious holidays, have never held. Russia violated a previous truce during Orthodox Easter 10,721 times over a 32-hour period in April, Ukraine's General Staff said. Moscow has already had to scale down or cancel its parades in the capital and elsewhere in Russia amid long-range Ukrainian drone strike threats, with no missiles, tanks, or armored vehicles expected to make an appearance on the Red Square. The Russian Defense Ministry warned on May 4 that it would respond with a "massive missile strike on the center of Kyiv" if Ukraine attempts to attack Moscow on Victory Day celebrations. The Russian threat comes as Ukraine hones its long-range drone capabilities over the past year, striking targets, such as oil refineries and infrastructure supporting the Russian war efforts, deep inside Russia. Later on May 7, the Russian Defense Ministry threatened Ukraine once again, saying that a Ukrainian attempt to interrupt the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow would be met with "a massive missile strike on the center of Kyiv," apparently fearful of Ukrainian attacks. The Russian Defense Ministry said in the same post on Telegram that a Ukrainian violation of a ceasefire in the war zone or any attempt to launch an attack on Russian regions would be reciprocated with "an adequate answer." Given Russia's track record of breaching ceasefires, even the ones it proposed itself, President Volodymyr Zelensky voiced skepticism about Moscow's interest in the temporary ceasefire, stressing that Russian troops have ramped up deadly indiscriminate attacks on civilians this week. Zelensky said on May 4 that Ukraine hasn't received official ceasefire proposals. Confusion has reigned over the Moscow-proposed ceasefire, which is likely a Russian strategy to make the lines blurry. Two days before the Russian-proposed ceasefire was due to kick off, a senior Ukrainian official told the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine sees no reason to observe a ceasefire, declared by Moscow, for its Victory Day celebrations. "We just don't see the point (to follow it) for the parade," the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to comment publicly, said. It is understandable why Kyiv would not accept Moscow's ceasefire proposal, given Russia's recent attacks on civilians across Ukraine and its track record of violating the truce, Jenny Mathers, a senior lecturer in international politics at the U.K.'s Aberystwyth University, said. "Kyiv's refusal to comply with Russia's request indicates that Kyiv is not fooled by yet another claim of Russian restraint," Mathers told the Kyiv Independent. "It is also likely to be interpreted by Moscow as a power move by the Ukrainians, which may provoke some respect from the Russians." Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko stressed that proposing "ceasefires" is a long-time Russian propaganda tactic, in which Putin appears to be trying to show people in Russia that he is "supposedly a humane peacemaker." The tactic is also likely aimed at signalling to U.S. President Donald Trump that he supposedly wants peace, according to the expert.