How long do you think it will take for Ukraine to get all of her territory back from Russia?
Ukraine already took back half of the territory that Russia captured in the first weeks of the invasion in 2022.
But Ukraine may not need to fight to recapture territory, like Russia is fighting.
There is another way.
Analyst Andrew Perpetua writes:
“Ukraine does not have an adequate air force, but it can create the effects of an air force using other methods and tools.
For example, long-range drones can be deployed in a series of nested concentric circles to mine and harass supply roads, effectively cutting them off.
One layer of drones could strike targets 100 km out, the next at 80 km, then 60 km, 40 km, and finally, the remaining drones could dominate the last 20–30 km leading to the front.
With sufficient drone coverage density, the impact on enemy logistics can closely mirror that of a conventional Air Force — cutting off supplies and limiting troop movements.
Furthermore, the development of heavier strike drones, with payloads between 100 and 500 kg, can replicate the effects of traditional airstrikes. In conjunction with attack drones, this combination becomes a deadly one-two punch: attack drones locate and relay target positions, and heavier strike drones follow up with rapid and destructive precision.
Once the enemy's rear positions are degraded to this extent, the front becomes unsustainable. The opposing force will be forced to withdraw, regardless of intent.
Ukraine does not need large offensive pushes to defeat Russia. It needs extremely high-density drone coverage to deny Russian sustainment.
Land can be taken back piece by piece, without committing to large and costly ground assaults.
All but the heavy strike drones can be done with the technology that Ukraine has available today, right now. The strike drones could be developed in short order.
This is a realistic path to victory using the tools and resources available.
And one which Europe could help using financing alone.
Europe could also provide longer range weapons for Ukraine’s existing aircraft, which is frankly a much more unrealistic path forward. Albeit possible. And Europe doesn’t really have the weapons available to give, so would require making them first.
But the point here is simple: Ukraine does not need to physically push Russia back to win.
They never needed to do that.
Trying to do that was stupid.
There are smarter ways.
Ukraine doesn’t need to fight Russia’s war, they can change the rules and fight on their own terms.”
The difference is, Ukraine is on her own land.
Russia is an occupier, and has to expend large effort to maintain the occupation.
Ukraine has all the time in the world.
Russia is exhausting her efforts and it’s unsustainable.
It can take 2 or more years for Ukraine to re-gain the territory.
And it’s not just possible, but doable.
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