How do the challenges faced by the Russian forces impact the overall situation in Ukraine?
Quora Digest
Russian oil infrastructure is on fire—during the past week, Ukraine drone forces are laser-focused on thwarting Russia’s capacity to capitalize on the war in Iran by selling its oil for premium prices.
The fires at the Russian ports are so huge, they could be seen from Finland.
2 major Russian Baltic ports were hit within 72 hours: Primorsk and Ust-Luga (1,000 km from Ukraine) had to suspend loading after the Ukrainian drone strikes. Novatek gas condensate processing complex was set on fire.
As the result, 40% of Russia’s total oil export capacity offline.
An attack on Kaleikino pumping station, based in Tatarstan (middle of Russia), caused a sharp reduction in the volume of oil the pipeline monopoly Transneft is able to send from Siberia to western Russia.
Yesterday, Ukrainian suicide drones just struck the Russian oil refinery Kirishi in the St Petersburg region—now there is nowhere to send oil pumped through the pipelines: ports are on fire, and the processing plant is disabled as well.
The worse are Russia’s overall economic situation and the immediate cash flow problems of the Russian regime, the easier it is for the Ukrainian forces on the front line—and the darker are the moods in Russian capitals.
Reports are that Putin had to call a meeting with Russian oligarchs, where he begged them for cash: first he told them that Russia would fight to capture Donbas in full (this was the main task announced at the start of Russia’s “3-day special military operation” that’s now in its 5th year)—and then he requested them to support the Russian troops by donating cash. Reportedly, 2 oligarchs immediately jumped in, announcing they would donate: one gave USD $1.1 billion, the other probably promised something similar. But not many Russian oligarchs gave this type of cash.
2 oligarchs donating $1 billion each would allow Putin pay for the war in Ukraine for 2 days. This isn’t going to save Russia. Even if 20 more oligarchs donate, it’s still not enough.
The Russian troops apparently were ordered to capture more territory, no matter the cost—so they began “meat attacks” again. This spiked Russian losses (over 1,700 men on some days)—but barely returned any gains to Russia.
The front line has barely moved in 3 years.
Russia is controlling less territory today than at the end of March 2022 (major Ukrainian counteroffensives were in Sep.-Nov. 2022).
Putin can claim “success” and “we are winning” all he wants—but even his close circle has eyes and brains. They can’t tell what they think even to their closest buddies (the buddy will think it’s provocation and likely to report it to the FSB—fearing if he doesn’t, he could be arrested himself as “unreliable”)—but they surely know that Putin is stuck and doesn’t know how to get out of the bad situation that’s getting worse with every day.
I said, “Putin has already lost; he just doesn’t know it yet” 4 years ago—on the 4th day of Putin’s “Kyiv in 3 days” “special military operation.”
By now, this is getting more obvious even for Putin-lovers.
With Moscow hit by constant shut downs of internet and St. Petersburg ports on fire, the dwellers of 2 Russian capitals are quickly getting worried about the war directly impacting their own privileged lives.
And these are the people who know very well the history of WW2 and what happened with Hitler’s close circle and top commanders after the war.
Russian dissenters in exile report that they are getting more intel leaking from all Russian power circles (the FSB, police, army, ministerial bureaucracy, presidential administration)—people are trying to secure their post-war future, in case of the crash of Putin’s regime, so that they could claim they were “part of the Resistance.”
The leaks about Putin’s meeting with oligarchs came from the oligarchs (or Putin’s inner circle). Multiple sources confirmed the meeting did occur.
Russia only seems stable.
Inside, things are tearing at the seams.
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