Two big things Trump the wheedler misunderstands about Russia

The war with Ukraine has revealed the yawning gap between Russia’s pretensions and its capabilities.

 

Yesterday [Feb 7] at 7:00 a.m. EST

George F. Will, The Washington Post; original article contains links; see also 

A cemetery outside Moscow, including graves of Russian soldiers killed during the war with Ukraine, on the eve of the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion, Feb. 23. (Ramil Sitdikov/Reuters)

Donald Trump continues trying to wheedle Vladimir Putin to end his war to extinguish Ukraine’s nationhood short of that outcome. Trump’s persistence calls to mind the man Gulliver encountered during his travels: He had spent “eight years upon a project for extracting sunbeams out of cucumbers.” 

The president misunderstands two things. First, the more blood and treasure Putin expends in Ukraine, the more he wants to win in order to redeem his blunder. This war was supposed to prove Russia’s might, and that Ukraine is an ersatz nation. Instead, it has revealed the yawning gap between Russia’s pretensions and its capabilities, and has created an incandescent Ukrainian nationalism. 

Second, the way for the West to economize violence and military expenditures in the long run is not to prepare for future conflicts with a Russia emboldened by success, but to deepen its diminishment by enabling Ukraine to continue bleeding Russia’s army and economy.

Trump, having cast his trained eyes on video of a Moscow military parade, reportedly (according to the Financial Times) told aides that the Russian army looked “invincible.” Well.

Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm, writes that in each of the past two months, Russia has suffered 30,000 to 35,000 casualties. In the past two years, Russia has taken 1 percent of Ukrainian territory at a cost of “157 dead per square kilometer.” The four-year Russian death toll is probably at least nine times higher than the 36,000 Americans killed in three years in the Korean War. 

The Economist says that in less than four years (June 22, 1941, to May 8, 1945), Russia advanced 1,600 kilometers from Moscow to Berlin. In more than four years, Russian forces in Donetsk, the war’s principal cauldron, “have advanced just 60km — the distance from Washington to Baltimore.” By the end of 2025, Russia was losing more men than it could recruit, relying on money, not patriotism. Signing bonuses — some equal to the lifetime wages of some Russian workers — equal 90 percent of Russia’s budget deficit. Prison terms and personal debts are canceled for recruits. Replacing battlefield casualties required up to 90 percent of 2025 recruits as replacements. 

Kenya’s intelligence agency says more than 1,000 Kenyans, most of them tricked into signing military contracts to fight in Ukraine, have been needed to supplement the “invincible” Russian army. Britain’s defense secretary says recruits from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Cuba, Nigeria and Senegal have been “recruited under false pretenses and press-ganged under pressure without necessarily realizing that they’re destined for the Russian meat machine on the front line of Ukraine.”

At the opening in Pyongyang of what are called “luxury apartment complexes” — think about that — North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un said the grieving families of North Koreans killed fighting for Russia in Ukraine (an estimated one-third of 12,000 sent in 2024) would be given priority access to the apartments. If you believe that …  

Presumably, Trump will tell Americans, when he thinks they deserve to know, his war or other plans for improving Iran. Meanwhile, he is supporting the reelection campaign of Europe’s most pro-Putin and aggressively anti-Ukraine leader. In mid-February, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was dispatched to Hungary to intervene in that nation’s election, on behalf of its authoritarian premier, Viktor Orban. His party at that moment was, according to trusted polls, behind by 10 points. This was so despite Orban’s wielding government-controlled media. Rubio told Orban that Trump “is deeply committed to your success” in the April 12 election. 

Orban’s government has reported a spate of bomb threats (but no bombs) against Hungarian schools and other institutions. The government says the threats are written in Ukrainian, so Ukraine is to blame. If you believe that …

Rubio’s grovel was perhaps supposed to bribe Orban to stop blocking European Union financial assistance to Ukraine. The blocking has, however, continued.  

A constant of modern Russian history is the systemic stupidity and toadyism that tyranny breeds. In the 1930s, some of Joseph Stalin’s censors, who were more zealous than educated, reportedly (writes Stalin’s biographer Stephen Kotkin) forbade radio broadcasts of music by Franz Schubert, who died in 1828, for fear he might be a supporter of Stalin’s nemesis, Leon Trotsky, who was born in 1879.  

Do not expect those who have risen profitably into Putin’s orbit to steer their obsessed benefactor toward what Trump’s National Security Strategy, published in December, calls “an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.” One wonders: Expediting what, exactly?

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The conversation explores a range of perspectives on Trump's approach to persuading Putin to end the war in Ukraine, as discussed in the opinion piece. Many participants express skepticism and criticism of Trump's actions and motivations, suggesting that he admires authoritarian figures like Putin and Orban, and that his foreign policy decisions are driven by personal gain rather than national interest. Some comments highlight Trump's perceived ignorance and lack of understanding of international affairs, while others suggest that his actions may be influenced by financial ties to Russia. There is also a sentiment that Trump's approach has weakened U.S. support for Ukraine and emboldened Russia. Additionally, some comments praise George Will for his analysis and critique of Trump's handling of the situation, while others express concern over the broader implications of Trump's foreign policy on democracy and global stability.