[Via the internet: On Ukraine/Russia, via Adam Roberts, The Economist today]

 

The Economist today

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Adam Roberts
Digital editor

Hello from London,

How vulnerable is Volodymyr Zelensky? It’s not only winter that is closing in.
The closest aide to Ukraine’s president was compelled to resign on Friday, as anti-corruption investigators continue to expose a scandal in the energy sector said to involve kickbacks worth $100m or more. The loss of Andriy Yermak as chief of staff is undoubtedly a painful blow. Mr Yermak had been in charge of handling diplomatic pressure from America and Russia—countries trying to impose a grim-sounding peace deal on weary Ukraine. Read our story on the fall of Mr Yermak.

Add fears that Russia, bit by bit, is gaining the upper hand on the battlefield. In a war of attrition Russia’s economic and manpower advantages are starting to tell. Its more recent advantage in drone firepower looks worrying, too. None of that means any sort of decisive military breakthrough is likely. It’s still not clear to me even whether all of Pokrovsk, a symbolically important town in the Donbas that Russia has been on the cusp of seizing for 14 months, has actually fallen, for example. But it adds to a sense of gloom.

Some Ukrainians would like to see Mr Zelensky go. It’s widely assumed that Valery Zaluzhny, who was sacked as commander of Ukraine’s armed forces early in 2024, is eager to become president himself. I assume that Donald Trump would like Mr Zelensky gone if that would make it easier for him to declare the war over (whatever the consequences for Ukrainians and for Europe as a whole). Undoubtedly, Vladimir Putin hopes to see his foe gone. Mr Zelensky has played a big part in humiliating the Russian autocrat.  Mr Putin’s supposed three-day invasion of Ukraine, back in 2022, has become a bloodbath that has now lasted more than 1,370 days and cost over 1m Russian dead and injured. 

Despite the recent pressure on Mr Zelensky I don’t see him as powerless. Europeans, who actually provide Ukraine with weapons (bought from America) and economic aid, are sticking by him, as they should. They know that it’s crucial both to fend off American efforts to impose a dreadful sort of peace deal on Ukraine, and to make sure that Mr Zelensky’s forces can inflict military and other pain on Russia. Maritime drone attacks on shadowy oil tankers in the Black Sea over the weekend suggest a new effort to block Russian exports. The regular signs of Russian threats in other parts of Europe—such as drones over Moldova this weekend—are reminders that Mr Putin’s real goal is to make Europe much weaker. Every effort to help Ukraine continue to resist, in other words, is entirely in Europe’s own interest.

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