Big Gaps Still Left to Bridge in U.S. Peace Plan for Ukraine
Washington expressed optimism about the modifications made during what it called “constructive talks” over the weekend.
But significant sticking points remain.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday his country had managed “to keep extremely sensitive points on the table” during discussions in Geneva on Sunday.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there was still work to be done before agreeing on a final plan, which would need the signoff of President Trump and Zelensky.
Further complicating matters: If the issues resolve as Ukraine hopes, it is likely that the proposal would then be unpalatable to the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday said that the American proposals on Ukraine, in their current form, could form the basis of a settlement, according to Russian state news agency TASS.
Trump on Monday expressed cautious optimism on the talks in a post on his Truth Social platform. “Is it really possible that big progress is being made in Peace Talks between Russia and Ukraine???,” he wrote. “Don’t believe it until you see it, but something good may just be happening.”
These are the main obstacles to Ukraine accepting the plan as it was first laid out late last week.
Surrendering territory
The U.S. plan demands that Kyiv surrender heavily defended territory in its eastern Donbas region, including strategically important cities that Moscow hasn’t managed to seize in almost four years of war.
On Monday, Zelensky said the main problem with the multipoint plan was the Kremlin’s demand for international legal recognition of the territory it has taken from Ukraine.
“It is crucial to support the principles on which Europe stands, that borders cannot be changed by force,” Zelensky said.
Under the U.S. plan, America would recognize the surrendered territory as Russian but the area would be a demilitarized zone from which Russian forces would be barred.
As for the rest of the Donbas, which is currently under Russian occupation, the U.S. would recognize it as “de facto” Russian, the plan says.
Top European officials said over the weekend that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia should start with a cease-fire along the current front lines.
Vague security guarantees
The U.S. plan hinges on an American security guarantee which is meant to answer the key concern of Ukraine and Europe: how to ensure that Russia doesn’t resume the war in future and seek to conquer new parts of Ukraine.
Should Moscow attack Ukraine in future, the U.S. and several European countries would be involved in a “decisive coordinated military response,” the plan says.
But the extent and strength of that response isn’t spelled out, nor is the nature of the U.S.’s role.
Europe and the U.S. have avoided direct involvement in the conflict so far. Ukraine fears that in the event of a fresh war, its Western partners wouldn’t offer sufficient protection to deter or overcome Russian aggression.
A renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine would trigger the snapback of international sanctions on Russia and recognition of any new Russian territorial claims would be revoked, the plan stipulates.
NATO ambitions
The U.S. plan would block Ukraine from membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and its mutual defense pact. It also creates an expectation that the military alliance wouldn’t expand. No NATO troops could be stationed in Ukraine.
Kyiv recognizes that its chances of entering the alliance in the coming years are very low, although the country’s constitution says this remains the aim.
After Sunday’s talks, Rubio said that issues directly involving NATO and the European Union had been set aside for now. However, the Europeans are pushing for wording in the plan that would allow them to send a reassurance force to Ukraine after a peace deal, something Moscow has opposed. Such a force would never be under NATO command or allowed into Ukraine during peacetime, the Europeans say.
“The negotiations were a step forward, but there are still major issues which remain to be resolved,” Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, wrote on X on Monday after speaking with Zelensky. “Any decision falling in the remit of EU or NATO will be discussed and decided by EU and NATO members in a separate track.”
The size of Ukraine’s military
The U.S. plan places a 600,000-person cap on the size of the peacetime Ukrainian military, while a European plan proposes a limit of 800,000.
This provision is less of an obstacle for Ukraine’s ability to defend itself; the country had a much smaller standing army pre-war. Ukraine doesn’t publish figures on the strength of its armed forces but Zelensky put it at 880,000 personnel in January.
Having to maintain a large standing army during peacetime would suck resources from a very strained Ukrainian budget. But any deal would have to include robust Western guarantees for Kyiv to accept such terms.
The U.S. plan places no cap on armed forces in Russia, which launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
What to do with frozen Russian assets
The U.S. plan wants to tap the roughly $300 billion in Russian sovereign assets that were immobilized in early 2022, in part for a U.S.-led reconstruction plan in Ukraine and in part for U.S.-Russian joint investment projects.
However, the bulk of the money is trapped in the EU under the bloc’s sanctions regime, over which the U.S. has no direct sway. The Europeans want all the money to be used for Ukraine and are working on a loan, backed by the assets, for Kyiv. European officials said this weekend that decisions on the assets can only be taken with the direct involvement of the EU.
Zelensky urged Europe on Monday to use the Russian assets to make the aggressor pay for the war. “Keep pressure on Russia, Russia is still killing people,” he said.
Write to Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com
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