[A message from The Editor of The Kyiv Independent]

Friday, November 21, 2025

Normally, I would use War Notes in moments like this to draw one's attention back to the fact that what matters more than all of this is the front line.

And yes, I will now do that again, but in a roundabout way. I might expand on these points later in a more eloquent, less sleep-deprived piece, but in the meantime, I just want to take this opportunity to lay out a few points, and then write a few short letters.

The war only ends when Russia stops. Russia wants Ukraine's full capitulation and subjugation.

There are only two ways this ends. One way to end the war is by giving Russia what it wants.

Today: A deal which gives Moscow new territory, legitimizes its aggression, and cripples Ukraine's ability to defend against the next invasion through military size and long-range weapon limits.

Tomorrow: the Russian flag raised above Kharkiv, Odesa, Kyiv, and whatever other cities they would like to conquer. Tomorrow, Moscow — with one of the largest armies in the world, easily the most experienced and the only one that has the knowledge and kit to fit a drone-saturated war — looking at which weak point of Europe to challenge next.

Without going into illusions of 1991 borders or vague formulations, the only other path, the only way of avoiding what I describe above, is to break Russia's conviction that it can break Ukraine, for good.

With all this in mind, what matters is not the existence of a draft peace deal, no matter how many points it has, but the real balance of power between the two sides.

This peace, this only way out of a world-rending calamity, is only possible if all the players interested in real peace change.