Russian Drone Incursion in Poland Tests NATO Defenses, Cohesion
In recent months, Russia has increasingly put historical rival Poland in its crosshairs. More Russian drones have violated Polish airspace, and an air assault on Ukraine in July damaged Warsaw’s diplomatic mission in Kyiv.
But the drone incursion into Poland this week was the first time warplanes from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization engaged Russian aerial weapons over alliance territory.
“Putin is testing us with this,” said Gen. Carsten Breuer, Germany’s defense chief. “He will judge us on our reaction.”
There has been no formal assessment of whether the incursion of Gerbera drones, a smaller variant of the Shahed, was deliberate, but the intelligence services of NATO countries conferred on Wednesday evening to discuss their findings related to the incident, and concluded that it was most likely a deliberate attack, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Gerbera drone
In service: July 2024
Max. take-off weight: 40 lbs.
Speed: 99 mph
Operational range: 370 miles
Flight altitude: 9,800 ft.
6.6 ft.
Sources: Defense Intelligence of Ukraine; Institute for Science and International Security
8.2 ft.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said 19 drones entered the country’s airspace. Some were on a trajectory toward Rzeszow airport, a NATO hub for supplying military and other aid to Ukraine located near Poland’s border.
In response, Poland and its NATO allies scrambled Dutch F-35s and Polish F-16s, which were joined by Black Hawk helicopters and an Italian airborne warning and control plane, or Awacs, that took off from Estonia.
Hours later, Warsaw called for Article 4 consultations under the NATO charter, the eighth time in the alliance’s history when such a step was taken, to discuss and potentially propose a joint response to the security concern.
“Right now Russia is watching very carefully to see how quickly NATO responds, what assets it uses and what its messaging is going to be from the U.S. and other allies,” said retired U.S. Army Col. Seth Krummrich. “They’re going to see, you know, how synchronized is NATO and what is the U.S. response.”
A handful of NATO capabilities had already been deployed to the bloc’s east to ensure that Russia’s attacks on Ukraine don’t spill into neighboring countries. Those include the Dutch F-35s and the Italian Awacs that responded to the incursion.
Drone parts found
Cruise missile parts found
Lithuania
Baltic Sea
Detail
Rus.
Russia
Pol.
Ukr.
Poland
Germany
Belarus
Warsaw
Lodz
Lublin
Krakow
Ukraine
Czech Rep.
Slovakia
Austria
100 miles
100 km
But the demands of monitoring the alliance’s border are growing. In some cases, allies have been short of crucial resources such as Awacs during operations to monitor aerial bombardments on Ukraine, a European official said.
A meeting of defense officials in London hours after the incursion looked at further reinforcing the eastern flank, U.K. military officials said. The Czech Republic has since said it would dedicate three Mi-171Sh helicopters to Poland, and French President Emmanuel Macron said France would send three Rafale jet fighters to protect Polish airspace. Germany will also position two Euro fighters on its border with Poland, according to a senior German official.
Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz reiterated on Thursday that the Netherlands had said it would expedite two of the three batteries of Patriot systems pledged to Poland and send 300 troops to help reinforce the border, Polish state news agency PAP said Thursday.
“I think we will now at NATO discuss what we can jointly and collectively do to strengthen further the defense of that airspace, and our eastern flank in general,” said Jens Plotner, Germany’s armaments and innovation minister.
One of the alliance’s greatest weaknesses is a lack of air-defense systems on its eastern flank, according to a NATO general tasked with air defense. A number of such systems have been provided to Ukraine, reducing NATO capabilities. Europeans will now look at providing additional air defense to Poland to stop further incursions, said U.K. officials, but it wasn’t clear who would provide the equipment or what it would consist of.
The incursion also served as a way for Moscow to probe cohesion among NATO allies, which has already been strained by differences over resolving the war in Ukraine. European leaders swiftly condemned the incursion and vowed a unified response.
President Trump offered a more ambiguous response. In a post on Truth Social, he said: “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”
Russia will be watching to see whether NATO countries follow up on their rhetoric or manage to address lingering shortcomings in air defenses in the east. Failure to do so could embolden the Kremlin to make more risky moves on the alliance’s eastern border, which is made up of former Soviet republics or Cold War satellites.
Western officials have accused Russia of carrying out a hybrid warfare campaign against the military bloc, using sabotage and other tactics in an effort to destabilize alliance members and undermine Western support for Ukraine.
Russia is suspected in a series of attacks, including fires at Germany’s biggest arms factory, cutting undersea cables and a plot to put an incendiary device on the planes of shipping giant DHL.
The incursion of Russian drones could backfire for Russia. Trump gave a warm welcome to newly elected Polish President Karol Nawrocki when he was in Washington earlier this month and even floated the idea of sending more troops to Poland.
NATO allies drew praise from Trump in June by pledging to more than double military spending, after years of criticism by the president that European countries weren’t spending enough on their own defense.
But perhaps the biggest risk for Russia is the possibility that the incursion stiffens the alliance’s resolve and sparks more solidarity among NATO members, some of whom are already considering sending troops to Ukraine as a security guarantee if and when the fighting stops.
“Russia’s actions are reckless, they’re dangerous, they’re unprecedented,” U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey said at a gathering with defense officials from France, Italy, Germany and Poland in London. “We see what Putin is doing yet again. He is testing us yet again; we will stand firm.”
Write to Thomas Grove at thomas.grove@wsj.com, Bojan Pancevski at bojan.pancevski@wsj.com and Max Colchester at Max.Colchester@wsj.com
Comments
Post a Comment