Next round of Russia-Ukraine talks uncertain as Moscow won’t reveal terms
With Russia saying its terms for peace must remain secret until the talks begin, Ukraine won’t confirm whether its delegation will even attend.
“In order for the next planned meeting to be substantive and meaningful, it is important to receive a document in advance so that the delegation that will attend has the authority to discuss the relevant positions,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told reporters Friday.
Kyiv says Russia has already received its proposal.
Sybiha, who spoke at a news conference alongside his Turkish counterpart in Kyiv, did not confirm whether a Ukrainian delegation will attend the proposed second round of talks should Russia’s memo not be delivered on time.
Russia, meanwhile, said its delegation — led by a lower-ranking official — will travel to Istanbul for the meetings anyway, and that both the Ukrainian and the Russian proposals could be discussed there so long as they are not made public.
Despite the lack of confirmation that the talks will happen, President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, told ABC News on Thursday that he expects them to go ahead. “Part of life is showing up. You have to show you’re serious,” he said.
The State Department has been silent on whether Rubio or any other administration officials will travel to Istanbul.
The next step, Kellogg said, could be a trilateral meeting between Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Turkey has also offered to host those potential talks.
The impasse over the terms has left Ukraine in an awkward diplomatic situation, where it may face pressure from Washington to attend the technical Russian-proposed talks Monday even if Moscow fails to produce its memo in advance and despite Russia’s refusal to agree to an unconditional ceasefire. Trump has expressed annoyance over delays in talks and U.S. officials have repeatedly threatened to walk away — a scenario that would ultimately benefit Russia.
Ukraine has little wiggle room due to its continued reliance on U.S. military and intelligence aid that has helped protect it from losing even more territory to Russia’s war. Still, Kyiv is unwilling to start talks based entirely on previously proposed Russian terms that Ukraine finds unacceptable, including asking the country to cede several major cities still under Ukrainian control and dramatically reducing the size of its military.
Responding to a question about the memo, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists Friday that “nothing will be made public.”
“Both Russian and Ukrainian drafts will hopefully be discussed at the second round of negotiations, for which the Russian delegation will be ready on Monday morning in Istanbul,” he said. He also said talks of high-level meetings between the countries’ leaders is premature and cannot be planned until progress is made at the delegation level. Zelensky, meanwhile, told reporters this week that he is ready to attend a meeting with Trump and Putin.
Peskov also said that “a list of conditions for a temporary truce is being developed.” An immediate ceasefire has been a long-standing U.S. demand.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Russia’s decision to delay handing over its terms was a deliberate tactic to avoid any criticism of its stance ahead of the meeting.
“Moscow appears intent on denying Ukraine and its European partners any opportunity to devalue, criticise, or refuse to engage with the document prior to the start of the meeting,” she posted on X.
Reuters reported this week that Putin’s conditions for ending the war in Ukraine included a demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to stop enlarging NATO eastward. Such an arrangement is unlikely, as NATO would not want its membership policies to be dictated by Russia. Ukraine wants to join the alliance because that would protect it from future Russian offensives.
“It’s a fair concern,” Kellogg told ABC about Russia’s concerns over NATO expansion. “To us, Ukraine coming into NATO is not on the table.”
As pressure mounts for talks to proceed, Ukraine has warned that Russian forces are amassing on the border and planning further assaults throughout the summer. Ukraine has lost most of the territory it controlled in Russia’s western Kursk region, and is now facing a potentially large Russian offensive on the northeastern city of Sumy, which sits just across the border.
Writing on Telegram, pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov suggested that a failure of peace talks and potential penalties would trigger Russia to launch a major summer offensive. “We can assume that for the duration of the peace talks brokered by Trump’s team, Russia has made a commitment not to launch a major offensive. If the commitment disappears, the offensive begins. This is likely to be the case in the near future.”
Speaking to journalists this week, Zelensky suggested that despite Russian threats and regular air assaults on Ukraine, Moscow does not have the resources to successfully launch a new major ground offensive.
“Their largest, strongest troops are currently in the Kursk direction,” Zelensky said, adding that about 50,000 troops amassed there hope to push into Ukraine and build a buffer zone at least six miles into the country. But with Ukrainian defenses in the region, such a result remains unlikely, he said.
“I think they understand that they lack these capabilities,” Zelensky said.
Ebel reported from London. John Hudson and Adam Taylor contributed from Washington.
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