Putin Warns an Anxious West Over Nuclear War
Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised the specter of a nuclear conflict if Ukraine’s allies step further into the war, a refrain the West had begun to tune out but that has gained resonance as collective security guarantees under NATO come under scrutiny.
While the Russian leader has repeatedly issued nuclear threats—and experts say the use of such weapons remains highly unlikely—the warnings come amid heightened anxiety in Europe about U.S. commitment to its security. Presidential candidate Donald Trump said earlier in February that he would encourage Russia to invade North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries that don’t pay enough into the alliance.
The talk of nuclear escalation in Putin’s annual parliamentary speech Thursday also reinforces the Russian president’s framing of the war in Ukraine as an existential conflict with the West, raising risks of a wider confrontation as global arms-control mechanisms disintegrate.
In recent weeks, German officials have called on France and the U.K.—Europe’s two nuclear powers—to work with Berlin to develop a fallback plan for nuclear deterrence for NATO, should the U.S. no longer be willing to fulfill that role. Some politicians and academics are going even further, asking whether Germany could someday need its own atomic arsenal.
Last year, Putin used his address to the Federal Assembly to announce that Moscow would suspend its participation in the New Start treaty, the last remaining major nuclear-arms-control treaty between the U.S. and Russia. In October, Russia said it would revoke its ratification of a major international nuclear-test-ban pact.
According to U.S. intelligence, Russia is seeking to develop a nuclear weapon that could be launched in space and used to target satellites. On Thursday, Putin called the reports a lie, designed to make Moscow look bad.
Elsewhere, North Korean leader and Putin ally Kim Jong Un has hardened his country into a menacing nuclear power while the West has been distracted by Ukraine and the Middle East.
Moscow’s upper hand on the battlefield in Ukraine has also emboldened the Russian president as vital U.S. military support for Kyiv has stalled. Putin appeared confident as he told lawmakers that the West was trying to drag Russia into a new arms race even as he touted the progress made in modernizing the country’s military equipment.
Russia’s opponents “must, after all, realize that we too have weapons that can hit targets on their territory,” he said, referring to recent comments by French President Emmanuel Macron in which he refused to rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine.
“All this really threatens a conflict including the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore the destruction of civilization—don’t they understand that?” he told lawmakers in the two-hour address.
Putin said that Moscow was ready for dialogue with Washington on issues of strategic stability.
“But here is what I would like to emphasize, dear colleagues, so that everyone understands me correctly: In this case, we are dealing with a state whose ruling circles are taking open hostile actions against us,” he said.
In previous speeches, Putin has hinted that nuclear weapons could be deployed in Ukraine. Shortly after the full-scale invasion in February 2022, he put Russia’s nuclear-deterrence forces on high alert, a warning to the countries lining up to help Ukraine fend off its Russian attackers.
Last year, he again hinted at the potential for Russia to use its nuclear arsenal if its own security was threatened.
Still, jitters about Russia’s possible use of nuclear weapons had largely abated and experts said that Putin was using such rhetoric as a warning to the West not to increase its support for Kyiv.
Now, fears about America’s disengagement from Europe have lent Putin’s nuclear rhetoric new power.
Since the war began, relations between Russia and the U.S. have sunk to their lowest level since the end of the Cold War. Moscow’s military adventurism has left it isolated from the West, which has imposed broad sanctions on the country but has failed to halt Russia’s war machine.
On Thursday, Putin, who has ruled Russia for over two decades, returned to a trope he has often used to justify his decision to invade Ukraine, telling Russian lawmakers that the West was trying to undermine Moscow.
Russia would do “absolutely everything” to pursue its military operation in Ukraine, Putin said in the speech, which was relayed live in some movie theaters around the country.
Moscow currently has the edge on the battlefield over Ukrainian forces, who are short on equipment while U.S. military aid is held up in Congress. Russia’s capture of the city of Avdiivka this month—the biggest battlefield victory for Putin since his forces seized Bakhmut in May 2023—has heightened anxieties in the West about the course of the war, particularly after Kyiv’s counteroffensive last year failed.
Analysts said that despite its nuclear content, the main aim of Putin’s speech was to placate the domestic population ahead of next month’s presidential election, in which a wide-scale crackdown on opposition parties and independent media is expected to ensure Putin scores an easy victory. Nevertheless, the Kremlin sees elections as a way to legitimize the president’s rule, requiring a degree of genuine popular enthusiasm.
Putin used much of his speech to promise economic modernization and higher incomes as the country grapples with a recent bout of inflation. He pledged support for families, pensioners and teachers, statements aimed at appeasing the population and ensuring continued domestic acceptance of the war in Ukraine.
“His nuclear rhetoric was completely peripheral and routine,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “His task was completely different—not to scare people, but to calm them down with a peaceful agenda, even to lull them to sleep.”
Write to Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com and Ann M. Simmons at ann.simmons@wsj.com
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